Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to record GDP growth of 2.7% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022.
Following this trend, all PALOP countries are expected to return to economic growth this year, after a 3.7% recession in 2020.
The data was presented by the World Bank in the report on Global Economic Outlook .
Graph 1. GDP Growth (Source: World Bank)
In the document, it is possible to read that the countries in the region most affected by the pandemic were those that had the most cases of COVID-19, those that are oil exporters and those that depend most on tourist activity.
Thus, Angola, which is in the process of restructuring its public debt, is expected to grow 0.9% this year and 3.5% in 2022, after three years of recession, having been most affected, according to the document, by the drops in oil exports and high inflation in response to a weaker currency and pressure on food prices.
Graph 2. Inflation in several countries in the region (Source: World Bank)
AGO = Angola; GHA = Ghana; ZAF = South Africa; NGA = Nigeria; ETH = Ethiopia; ZWE = Zimbabwe
In the case of Cape Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe, countries essentially affected by the decline in the tourism sector, the prospects are also for growth. In the first case, a recovery of 5.5% is expected this year and 6% in 2021, after a recession of 11% in 2020. In the Central African archipelago, expansion will be 3% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, after a 6.5% drop last year.
Graph 3. International Tourism Arrivals in the region (Source: World Bank)
Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique are expected to grow 3% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, after a contraction of 2.4% in and 0.8%, respectively.
Despite growth forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, “living standards are likely to slip back a decade and tens of millions of people in the region could be drawn into extreme poverty cumulatively by 2020-21.”
The World Bank also warns that a recovery below expectations “could be the result of persistent adverse effects of the pandemic or the slow distribution of vaccines, especially if combined with an increase in new domestic cases”. New waves of infection in non-regional trading partners would also jeopardize growth in terms of a drop in demand and reduced investment.