President of IPDAL comments on the main commercial trends in the Latin America and Caribbean region in 2015.

The various data on trade trends for 2016 in Latin America and the Caribbean demonstrate that it will not be in 2016 that there will be a recovery in exports. All because what motivated the slowdown in exports in the last 3 years will continue this year. Therefore, no increases in the prices of raw materials are expected and the heavily importing economies of Latin America, such as the United States of America and Europe, will experience modest growth. China’s economy will also suffer a small slowdown (in the same direction as in recent years). The IDB (Inter-American Development Bank), for example, recommends that Latin American and Caribbean countries diversify their markets and invest in free trade agreements in addition to a strong focus on the intraregional market.

About the balance of 2015 there was a 14% drop in exports on the Latin American continent. If we analyze the subregions we arrive at different numbers. Thus, the countries of South America had a 21% drop in exports – countries that essentially export raw materials – while the countries of Central America had a drop of 7%, Mexico – the second largest economy in the region – a decrease of 4% and the Caribbean countries saw a drop of 23%. In the entire Region, only 2 countries saw their exports grow: El Salvador (+6%) and Guatemala (+2%). The countries that had the biggest drops are precisely those that essentially export hydrocarbons: Venezuela (-49%), Colombia (-35%), Bolivia (-32%), Ecuador (-28%) and Trinidad and Tobago (-27 %).

Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean to China decreased by 14%; fell 7% for the United States of America, fell 18% for Europe and intraregional exports also fell by 19%. In terms of products in 2015, the drop in prices was impressive: soybeans (-26%), sugar (-26%), coffee (-20%), oil (-50%), iron (-44%) and copper (-18%).

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